Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 29.835741 33.484987 37.738384 43.152119 49.998408 58.576233 70.505128
2025-03-30 24.488029 29.136967 35.160583 43.896539 56.968313 77.335876 115.823876
2025-04-06 20.884102 25.983519 33.172797 44.858925 65.496265 106.951674 232.485307
2025-04-13 18.609258 24.060732 32.348631 47.397135 79.268061 169.495228 982.096902
2025-04-20 16.262540 21.540380 29.965642 46.481854 86.753908 246.560443 NaN
2025-04-27 14.711057 19.928203 28.652991 47.128126 99.857894 447.224343 NaN
2025-05-04 13.544860 18.716087 27.734739 48.288391 117.685296 1217.166718 NaN
2025-05-11 12.435484 17.420877 26.376562 47.924232 131.454137 7852.736443 NaN
2025-05-18 11.604700 16.476512 25.488566 48.418236 152.519820 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 10.964733 15.774249 24.934971 49.635331 184.592473 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 10.369797 15.075886 24.254023 50.237409 219.691049 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 9.887994 14.525203 23.785124 51.356283 273.244660 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 9.323761 13.805607 22.920599 51.178507 327.458803 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 8.866447 13.248974 22.353609 51.980189 433.805326 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.469375 12.770470 21.898025 53.126982 629.399687 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.197845 12.507849 21.915655 56.414010 1370.535118 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 7.774166 11.905303 21.003299 55.129285 1898.792142 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 7.469181 11.513586 20.563601 55.946066 5319.005789 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 7.214809 11.200940 20.277436 57.464036 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 6.922504 10.786589 19.665068 56.957385 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 6.688973 10.475176 19.283792 57.603188 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 6.499459 10.240012 19.074751 59.223905 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 6.304169 9.977716 18.754410 60.026654 NaN NaN NaN